Adrian Bejan | Innovation, from Design in Nature
In this video, Adrian Bejan turns the S-curve into a lesson about innovation. He explains that anything useful spreads in the same S shape, growing slowly, then quickly, then slowly again, until it reaches a plateau where the maker runs into trouble. The way out, he argues, is to replace the old with something new before the curve flattens, thereby launching a fresh S-curve and keeping the company alive. He illustrates this with Apple’s run of iPhone models, the rise of maritime technology in Western Europe, and the link between wealth, movement, and freedom.
Why things spread. Anything that spreads, from a news item to the latest iPhone model, does so because it is useful and becomes attached to or adopted by a person. Bejan notes that none of us is a “naked animal” anymore, since that picture disappeared when we adopted fire.
The maker’s problem. The same S-curve that rewards everyone who adopts a new technology leaves the manufacturer in trouble once growth reaches the plateau. The question then becomes how to make the curve steeper and keep the product spreading.
Innovation is replacement. Bejan’s answer is to replace something old with something new, which is what innovation means. Drawing on the constructal law, he says you need the freedom to redraw the picture, sending the invasion in new directions rather than waiting for slow consolidation.
The rhythm of new models. With the iPhone, marketing teams learn to detect the inflection point of each curve and launch a new model before the old one flattens. Each launch starts a fresh S-curve of income, and that rhythm has carried Apple through some sixteen models.
Innovation is not spread evenly. Maritime technology, including the compass, the telescope, and maps, developed in Western Europe and spread across the oceans from there. Even the name “Americas” comes from a Florentine map maker, Amerigo, a reminder that it pays to be on the map.
Wealth, movement, and freedom. Two graphs in the lecture show that wealth measured as GDP rises with movement, and that movement rises with economic freedom. Quoting Cicero, Bejan defines freedom as the power to live as one wishes, which to him means the power to make the changes that are good for you.
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