Adrian Bejan | Predicting the future and the past, from Design in Nature
In this video, Adrian Bejan explains that predicting evolution entails predicting both the future direction and the present's origin, because without the power to predict, there is no basis for asking why things are the way they are today. He points to bipedal motion, quadripedal motion, the cross sections of rivers, and the dendrites in the lung as things that have arrived at being present today out of a universal tendency. That tendency is to acquire greater access to what flows, and to achieve this through the freedom to change. He then turns to airplanes as loaded structures that travel through space, and argues that what flies has organs, and that the sum of the organs and their positions constitutes the structure. He frames the day as a problem-solving session focused on predicting the size of the fuel load, the range while consuming that load, and the size of the engine, while also insisting that without the engine, there is no power, no movement, and no evolving design.
Predicting evolution is valuable both prospectively and retrospectively, as it supports the question of why things are the way they are today. It is tied to predicting direction and the origin of the present.
Many examples are presented as answers on the blackboard, including bipedal motion, quadripedal motion, cross sections of rivers, and dendrites in the lung. These are described as arriving to be present today out of a universal tendency.
The universal tendency is described as the acquisition of greater access to what flows, enabled by the freedom to change. This frames the way designs evolve.
Airplanes are treated as loaded structures that travel through space at constant speed for simplicity, and they are said to have organs. The structure is the sum of the organs and their positions within the whole.
The objectives are to predict fuel load, range, and engine size, with the engine emphasized as essential for power and propulsion, and for evolving design. The same ideas are said to apply 100% to other moving and loaded objects, such as animal bodies, food on board, and muscle mass.
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